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Exports

US Ag Trade Deficit Hits Record High in 2025

Strategic Insights

— 2 min read

The US agricultural trade deficit continued to escalate in 2025, with the deficit reaching a record $28.6 billion through June. This significant increase from the previous year's deficit of $18.4 billion is largely due to weak production growth, increased demand for imported food, and ongoing trade conflicts. The value of US ag exports trailed imports by $4.1 billion in June, a gap that is 14% wider than a year ago. The administration's recent trade deals and the ongoing trade war with China have contributed to the decline in exports, with US exports to China dropping by half in the first half of 2025.

Key Takeaways:

  • The US ag trade deficit reached a record $28.6 billion through June 2025, a 54% increase from the previous year's deficit of $18.4 billion.
  • Weak production growth, increased demand for imported food, and ongoing trade conflicts are major drivers of the increasing ag trade deficit.
  • The value of US ag exports trailed imports by $4.1 billion in June, a gap that is 14% wider than a year ago.
  • US exports to China dropped by half in the first half of 2025, from $11.8 billion in 2024 to $5.5 billion in 2025.
  • New-crop sales of US soybeans are struggling due to China's failure to buy a single cargo, a 20-year low for the date and a 12% decline from last year.
  • Horticultural products, including fruits, vegetables, nuts, wine, and other alcohols, will account for approximately 49% of total agricultural imports by value in fiscal year 2025.
  • A strong US dollar and high labor costs have made American goods more expensive for foreign buyers, weakening global competitiveness.
  • Trade barriers, retaliatory tariffs, and ongoing disputes have limited access to important markets, contributing to the growing trade imbalance.
  • After decades of consistent trade surpluses, the US has been in an agricultural trade deficit since 2022.

Statistics:

  • The US ag trade deficit through June 2025: $28.6 billion (54% increase from 2024)
  • Value of US ag exports trailed imports by in June 2025: $4.1 billion (14% wider than 2024)
  • US exports to China in the first half of 2025: $5.5 billion (50% decline from 2024)
  • New-crop sales of US soybeans: 3 million metric tons (20-year low)
  • Horticultural products' share of total agricultural imports in fiscal year 2025: 49%
  • US dollar's impact on global competitiveness: increased costs and reduced competitiveness
  • Trade barriers and retaliatory tariffs' impact on global trade: limited access to important markets

Sources:

  • USDA data released this month
  • American Farm Bureau Federation Market Intel (June)
  • Zaner Ag Hedge's Karen Braun
  • US Commerce Department data
  • Illinois Farm Bureau and the Illinois Press Association

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