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Epidemics

US Airlines Diverge on Rebound in Travel as Summer Holiday Season Kicks Off

Strategic Insights

— 1 min read

The US airline industry is showing signs of rebounding as the summer holiday season starts, with more travelers passing through US airports than at any time since the pandemic took hold. The US Transportation Security Administration (TSA) reported that nearly 2 million people flew at the start of the Memorial Day holiday weekend, the highest number of travelers on any day since March last year. American Airlines and United Airlines are taking differing views on the recovery, with American expanding capacity and United reducing seats.

Key Takeaways:

  • American Airlines is increasing capacity for June and July to only slightly below 2019 levels, with 7% fewer seats in June and 5% fewer in July compared to 2019 sales figures.
  • United Airlines has scheduled 30% fewer seats in June than in 2019, and is selling 20% fewer seats in July compared to the same month two years ago.
  • American Airlines has been more aggressive in its recovery expectations relative to Delta and United, but has also benefited from greater exposure to domestic routes.
  • United has historically had fewer summer flights than American or Delta and the highest percentage of international flights of the three largest US carriers.
  • The lack of international passengers is affecting United's domestic flying, with many countries still restricting tourism from overseas.

Statistics:

  • 2 million people flew at the start of the Memorial Day holiday weekend, the highest number of travelers on any day since March last year.
  • 7.1 million people flew between Friday and Monday, fewer than the 9.7 million who traveled for the same US long weekend in 2019, but more than five times the number who flew in 2020.
  • American Airlines is selling 7% fewer seats in June and 5% fewer in July compared to 2019 sales figures.
  • United Airlines has scheduled 30% fewer seats in June than in 2019, and is selling 20% fewer seats in July compared to the same month two years ago.

Sources:

  • US Transportation Security Administration (TSA)
  • Raymond James analyst Savanthi Syth
  • Aviation data company Cirium
  • Analyst Jon Jager at Cirium

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