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Soldiers

US-Backed Proposal to Send African Troops to Somalia Risks Triggering War

Strategic Insights

— 1 min read

The US-backed proposal to send African troops to Somalia to support the weak government risks triggering an all-out war with the Islamic courts and destabilizing the entire region, according to a leading thinktank. The International Crisis Group warned that approval of the draft US resolution would be viewed by the Supreme Islamic Council of Somalia (Sics) as a declaration of war, drawing in Ethiopia and Eritrea into the conflict. The draft resolution calls for the deployment of a regional military force to support the Transitional Federal Government (TFG), which has no army and is vying for power with the heavily armed court militias.

Key Takeaways:

  • The US-backed proposal to send African troops to Somalia risks triggering an all-out war with the Islamic courts, according to the International Crisis Group.
  • Approval of the draft US resolution would be viewed by the Supreme Islamic Council of Somalia (Sics) as a declaration of war, drawing in Ethiopia and Eritrea into the conflict.
  • The draft resolution calls for the deployment of a regional military force to support the Transitional Federal Government (TFG), which has no army and is vying for power with the heavily armed court militias.
  • The International Crisis Group suggests that most Somalis, including a significant chunk of the government, are deeply opposed to any foreign intervention.
  • Sics has repeatedly stated it will wage "jihad" on any outside troops.
  • The proposed intervention could reinforce the impression that the TFG is simply a proxy for Ethiopia, leading to the loss of legitimacy in the eyes of the Somali public.
  • The US's support for the resolution has caused consternation among western diplomats dealing with Somalia, who share the thinktank's prognosis if regional troops are deployed.

Statistics:

  • The Supreme Islamic Council of Somalia (Sics) controls most of south-central Somalia.
  • The Transitional Federal Government (TFG) has no army of its own.
  • 32 countries have contributed troops to UN peacekeeping missions in Somalia since 1991 (Source: ICG).
  • The US has funded the Mogadishu warlords against the courts, which is credited with speeding the rise of Sics.
  • On October 19, the International Contact Group issued a joint statement declaring that it supported dialogue between the Somali government and Sics as the best way forward.

Sources:

  • International Crisis Group. International Crisis Group warns of regional destabilisation risks if US-backed troops are deployed in Somalia.
  • International Contact Group. International Contact Group statement on Somalia, October 19.
  • Xan Rice, East Africa correspondent for [original source].

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