US-Brokered Peace Plan in South Caucasus Sparks Concerns in Iran

The US-brokered peace declaration between Armenia and Azerbaijan has been met with mixed reactions in Iran, with the country welcoming peace between the two ex-Soviet nations but also expressing opposition to growing US influence in its backyard. The agreement, which provides for the construction of a transit corridor between Azerbaijan and its exclave of Nakhchivan, would offer a more direct trade connection to Turkey and onward to Europe, posing a severe blow to Iran's interests in the region.

Key Takeaways:

• The US-brokered peace plan between Armenia and Azerbaijan includes the construction of a transit corridor, dubbed the "Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity," which would run through a 32-kilometer (20-mile) strip of Armenian territory.
• The corridor would allow for a more direct trade connection to Turkey and onward to Europe, posing a threat to Iran's energy interests in the region.
• Iran has welcomed peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan but expressed opposition to growing US influence in its backyard, with Supreme Leader advisor Ali Akbar Velayati stating that Iran "will not allow the creation of this corridor."
• Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian contradicted this assessment, stating that the planned route would not cut off Iran's access to Armenia and that the peace plan "takes Iran's views into account."
• The region is strategically important due to the competition between Russia and the West, with the US and Russia seeking to diminish Russian influence in the South Caucasus.
• The construction of pipelines and trade routes that bypass Iran has been part of US strategy since the 1990s, with the US accelerating this process and achieving the signing of the agreement.
• Iran is facing multiple crises, including a military exchange with Israel, loss of proxy militias, and growing dissatisfaction among the population with political repression and the economic situation.

Statistics:

• The number of Iranian citizens with Azerbaijani roots is estimated to be around 18 million.
• The total population of Azerbaijan is 10.2 million.
• Iran has two provinces along the northwestern border that still bear the names West and East Azerbaijan.

Sources:

• Ali Akbar Velayati, advisor to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei
• Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian
• Shireen Hunter, Iran expert at Georgetown University in the US
• Reza Talebi, Iran expert at Germany's University of Leipzig
• Afshar Soleimani, former Iranian ambassador in Azerbaijan