US-China Relations: A Hypothetical Election Reveals Dire Consequences

As the US-China relationship deteriorates with each passing day, analysts warn that the outcome of next month's presidential election will have far-reaching implications. China's state council adviser, Wang Huiyao, believes Joe Biden's inclination towards multilateralism could lead to a less intense world, while Donald Trump's hawkish policies will continue to fuel tensions. Meanwhile, experts like Chen Zhiwu, a professor at Hong Kong University, caution that any accommodation to China from a Biden administration would be short-lived, as the former vice-president's goal is to counter China's rise.

Key Takeaways:

• China's state council adviser, Wang Huiyao, expects a Biden administration to have more platforms for negotiations with China, potentially leading to a less intense world.
• Chen Zhiwu, a professor at Hong Kong University, believes a Biden administration would adopt a traditional US multilateral approach to foreign policy, affecting the US-China relationship.
• Yu Jie, a senior fellow at Chatham House, thinks that despite differences in style, both Biden and Trump will maintain a China-unfriendly policy to curb China's rise.
• Steve Tsang, director of the Soas China Institute, suggests the US-China rivalry could spill over into competition and confrontation in areas such as trade, technological transfer, and punishment on named persons.
• The balance of power in the world has swung more into China's favor under Trump, according to Steve Tsang.
• Analysts warn that a Trump victory would be dreadful for US-China relations but a gift for Xi Jinping politically, as it would eliminate pro-US voices within the Chinese political establishment.

Statistics:

• Since Trump became president, he has done more than anyone, including Xi, toward making China great again, according to Steve Tsang.
• Chinese armed forces have conducted exercises near Taiwan, a self-governing nation claimed by Beijing, this year.
• Trump announced his intention to withdraw from the Paris agreement in 2017 and pulled the US out of the WHO this year.
• A Biden administration may take some time to undo changes made by the Trump administration, but could present a tougher challenge to China in the longer term.
• The US has helped militarily in Taiwan, a self-governing nation that Beijing claims as its sacred territory.

Sources:

• Wang Huiyao, an adviser to China's state council or cabinet
• Chen Zhiwu, a professor at Hong Kong University
• Yu Jie, a senior fellow at Chatham House
• Steve Tsang, director of the Soas China Institute in London
• Roberto Schmidt/AFP/Getty (photographs)
• Bilateral strategic tension has surged this year, with Chinese armed forces conducting exercises near Taiwan.