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Tariffs

US Importers Vulnerable to Tariff Increases

Strategic Insights

— 1 min read

US importers, particularly small firms, face significant challenges in adapting to recent shifts in trade policies, which have led to potential increases in costs of imported goods. According to a recent analysis by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, small firms have limited bargaining power to negotiate prices, rely on a single supplier, and lack access to credit, making them more vulnerable to higher tariffs.

Key Takeaways:

  • Small firms represent 86% of all US firms engaged in maritime trade and account for 41% of all maritime trade in terms of total shipments and 44% in terms of shipment value.
  • Small firms tend to import fewer products, and the products that they import are on average less complex, more easily substitutable, and associated with shorter-lived supplier relationships.
  • Reliance on suppliers from a single country means that searching for alternative suppliers—domestic or foreign—becomes imperative when goods from that country are subject to tariffs.
  • Small importers are facing steeper tariff increases, with an average increase in effective tariff rates (ETRs) of 25 ppts between 2024 and 2025.
  • Highly exposed small importers, defined as those with an above-average increase in ETR and a lack of access to credit, are predominantly located on the West Coast due to their proximity to shipping routes from China and Asia.
  • These "tariff-vulnerable importers" represent a significant share of US importers overall, with around 31% of importers in the average state being vulnerable.

Statistics:

  • Small firms represent 86% of all US firms engaged in maritime trade.
  • Small firms account for 41% of all maritime trade in terms of total shipments and 44% in terms of shipment value.
  • The average small importer faces a 25 ppt increase in ETR between 2024 and 2025.
  • Highly exposed small importers have access to credit in 27% of cases, compared to 70% for medium and large firms.
  • Tariff-vulnerable importers, defined as small firms lacking access to credit and facing an above-average increase in ETR, represent around 31% of importers in the average state.

Sources:

  • Alfaro et al. (2025)
  • Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)
  • Dun and Bradstreet NETS
  • Panjiva Supply Chain Intelligence
  • SandP Global
  • Trade War Tracker
  • UNCTAD (2021)
  • Authors' calculations based on data from BLS, Dun and Bradstreet NETS, SandP Global's Panjiva Supply Chain Intelligence, and Trade War Tracker

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