US-Israeli Bombing of Iran's Nuclear Facilities: Assessment of the Situation

The recent US-Israeli bombing of three nuclear facilities in Iran has been described by President Donald Trump as a "spectacular military success", with global calls for de-escalation. The bombing campaign, which took place over eight days, targeted 100 sites across Iran, including nuclear facilities, missile bases, and military sites. The most recent joint strike delivered 30,000 lb "bunker buster" bombs to Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan facilities, but Iran has denied serious harm or radiation leaks.

Key Takeaways:

• The bombing campaign has devastated Iran's nuclear programme, but questions arise around whether Iran may have been tipped off and had time to prepare for the attack.
• The presence of a large convoy near the remote mountainside nuclear facility in Fordow two days before the US strike has led to speculation that enriched uranium was being moved to a covert facility.
• If fissile uranium has not been destroyed or seized, Iran's rebuilding of its nuclear programme may arise more rapidly than expected.
• Iran's president Isaac Herzog has admitted that he does not know whether Iran's nuclear capabilities have been destroyed completely.
• Dr Patricia Mary Lewis, Research Director for International Security at Chatham House, has stated that "Iran was preparing to move people, equipment, and material out of the site -- but did they achieve this? Was it a decoy?"
• Professor Christoph Bluth, a nuclear security expert at the University of Bradford, has warned that Iran may be "compelled" to build nuclear weapons in the absence of IAEA inspections and the Iran Deal.

Statistics:

• 100 targets across Iran were hit in the initial air strike from June 13 to 15.
• 30,000 lb "bunker buster" bombs were used in the most recent joint strike to deliver 30,000-handled bomblets and destroy deep underground facilities including the Natanz Fort, Fordow underground facility and Isfahan nuclear technology centre.
• Up to 18 months may be required to construct new facilities and begin uranium enrichment if Iran does not have secret processing facilities.
• $Billions of dollars may be required to regain nuclear capabilities.
• 2-3 years may be required to rebuild nuclear capabilities if highly enriched uranium has been seized or destroyed.
• Iran could rebuild its nuclear programme and produce enough 90 percent weapons-grade uranium for a nuclear weapon in approximately 2 months.

Sources:

• Amit Segal, a political analyst in Israel, shared satellite imagery showing a large convoy near the remote mountainside nuclear facility in Fordow.
• Dr Patricia Mary Lewis, Research Director for International Security at Chatham House, stated that "Iran was preparing to move people, equipment, and material out of the site -- but did they achieve this? Was it a decoy?"
• Professor Christoph Bluth, a nuclear security expert at the University of Bradford, warned that Iran may be "compelled" to build nuclear weapons in the absence of IAEA inspections and the Iran Deal.
• President Donald Trump described the operation as a "very successful attack".
• White House/AFP via Getty Images
• Reuters
• Maxar Technologies
• Chatham House