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Milosevic, Slobodan

US-Russia Relations Remain Fragile Amid Kosovo Crisis

Strategic Insights

— 2 min read

US-Russia relations remain precarious, eight years after the collapse of the Soviet Union. A cycle of hope and disappointment is likely to continue, with the emphasis on disappointment, due to upcoming elections in both nations. Experts warn that Russia will continue to assert its interests and limit US influence in the region. President Clinton's efforts to integrate Russia into Europe may be hampered by the Yeltsin government's increasing skepticism towards US and Western goals.

Key Takeaways:

  • The Yeltsin government has agreed to accept Western strategic policies but retains a voice in how they are implemented.
  • Russia's military and economic weaknesses would have allowed Washington to ignore its wishes, but instead, Clinton has actively sought to integrate Russia into Europe.
  • The troop move into Kosovo may be a shot across the bow to assert Russia's involvement in the region and express frustration with Western actions.
  • Ordinary Russian citizens are upset with NATO's expansion and bombing of Yugoslavia, which may lead to a more anti-American and anti-NATO leader in Russia.
  • Upcoming elections in Russia and the US may limit the flexibility of both leaders to pursue reconciliation.
  • Kosovo may turn out to be more important in US-Russia relations than as a NATO humanitarian action.
  • Russia still has nuclear weapons, although not as many as it used to.
  • Experts warn that a large change has already occurred in the US-Russia relationship, and one that is for the worse.

Statistics:

  • 8 years since the breakup of the Soviet Union
  • 16 to 19 nations in NATO expansion
  • 1/3 of Russian citizens are upset with NATO's expansion and bombing of Yugoslavia
  • 6 months until Russian elections
  • 1 year until US elections
  • 200 Russian troops moved into Pristina

Sources:

  • Wedgewood, Ruth (Council on Foreign Relations senior fellow)

"Confrontation is not entirely over,"

  • Goldgeier, James (Brookings Institution visiting fellow in foreign policy)

Clinton "has actively sought to integrate Russia into Europe, to bolster Russia."

  • Eland, Ivan (Cato Institute director of defense policy studies)

"This is a shot across the bow to say they want to be involved."

  • Goldgeier, James (Brookings Institution visiting fellow in foreign policy)

Kosovo was the first issue to filter down into the population and be seen as something wrong for the West to do.

  • Perry, John Curtis (Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy professor)

"What is Russia's role going to be in eastern Europe, particularly in the Slavic states?"

  • Goure, Daniel (Center for Strategic and International Studies military expert)

The Clinton goal of a strategic partnership between the former adversaries is now dead.

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