Sign in Subscribe
Farmers

US Soybean Harvest Underway Amid Trade War and Uncertain Income

Strategic Insights

— 1 min read

The US soybean harvest is in full swing, but farmers are facing an uncertain future due to the ongoing trade war with China. American farmers, particularly in rural Maryland, are reeling from the consequences of President Donald Trump's aggressive tariffs, which have halted orders from China, the country's biggest buyer of US soybean exports. Farmer Travis Hutchison, who tills 3,400 acres of soybeans and corn, expressed disappointment at the situation, stating that his family's income is under threat despite a strong yield. The trade impasse has led to a 40% decline in soybean prices over the past three years, making them less competitive against exports from South America.

Key Takeaways:

  • The US soybean harvest is underway, but farmers are facing uncertain income due to the trade war with China.
  • Exports to China have fallen by over 50% in value this year, with Chinese buyers holding off on new soybean orders from the US autumn harvest.
  • Soybean prices are down about 40% from three years ago, making them "prohibitively more expensive" than exports from South America.
  • American Soybean Association (ASA) president Caleb Ragland expressed disappointment with the situation, stating that top-level talks failed to restore soybean exports to China.
  • Farmers like Travis Hutchison and David Burrier are experiencing financial stress, with 40% of Burrier's acres predicted to be breakeven or under breakeven.
  • The trade war has caused a significant decline in US agriculture export revenues, with a $27 billion loss in 2018-2019.
  • Government bailouts are seen as a "band-aid" rather than a long-term solution, with farmers prioritizing a reliable trading partner over short-term fixes.
  • US farm bankruptcies have surged about 50% this year, with Professor Chad Hart of Iowa State University attributing the increase to economic conditions.

Statistics:

  • 50% decline in value of US soybean exports to China this year
  • 40% decline in soybean prices over the past three years
  • $27 billion loss in US agriculture export revenues in 2018-2019
  • 50% surge in US farm bankruptcies this year
  • 20% counter-duties on US soybeans imposed by China
  • 40% of David Burrier's acres predicted to be breakeven or under breakeven

Sources:

  • AFP (2025)
  • Japan Today (2022)
  • Yerepouni Daily News (2022)

Read more