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US Trade Officials Finalize Deals with India, Pakistan, Bangladesh Ahead of July 9 Deadline

Strategic Insights

— 2 min read

US trade officials are racing against time to finalize trade deals with India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh ahead of the July 9 deadline to avert punitive US tariffs. The deals are crucial for the country's trade ties with these major trading partners, with India being its largest trading partner. The negotiations have been ongoing for several weeks, with top officials from the US Trade Representative (USTR) involved in the talks.

Key Takeaways:

  • Pakistan is proposing a hike in US imports, including cotton, soybeans, and edible oils, with incentives for US investment in mining, especially in Balochistan's Reko Diq. The country is also offering tariff reductions on select imports, aligning with FTA China levels within WTO norms.
  • Pakistan's finance think tanks warn of a 20-25% export drop, amounting to $1-1.4 billion in lost revenue, if no deal is reached by July 9.
  • India is banking on a potential deal with the US to boost bilateral trade from $190bn to $500bn by 2030, and is pushing for a deal on defense, energy, tech, and higher education cooperation.
  • India's average tariff rate is around 17%, significantly above the US rate of 3%, and is charging 150% tariff on import of whiskey from the US, 100% on motorcycles, and up to 40% on medical devices.
  • A deal with India would be Washington's first with a major trading partner after the UK, and would reset strategic ties between the two nations.
  • The US-BD talks on trade began in April, and a follow-up meeting is scheduled on July 8, 2025, just ahead of the 90-day pause expiration on July 9.
  • In 2024, the total US-Bangladesh trade was about $10.6 billion, with a trade deficit of $6.2 billion for the US.

Statistics:

  • $5 billion: The value of Pakistan's annual US exports, predominantly in textiles, which could be jeopardized if no deal is reached by July 9.
  • 20-25%: The expected export drop in Pakistan if no deal is reached by July 9.
  • $1-1.4 billion: The lost revenue in Pakistan due to the expected export drop if no deal is reached by July 9.
  • $190bn: The current level of bilateral trade between the US and India.
  • $500bn: The targeted level of bilateral trade between the US and India by 2030.
  • 90 days: The period for which the US tariff pause on Pakistani exports has been extended to negotiate a deal.
  • 2024: The year in which the total US-Bangladesh trade was about $10.6 billion.

Sources:

  • Western digital and print media outlets
  • Government officials
  • Ministry of Finance
  • USTR
  • White House press Secretary Karoline Leavitt
  • Foreignpolicy.com
  • Independent.co.uk

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