Virginia Voters May Be Breaking Free from Partisan Patterns

Voters in Virginia have increasingly identified themselves as either members of "team red" or "team blue" over the past two decades, but recent polls suggest a shift away from this partisan divide. Ahead of the November 4 elections, polls show Democrat Abigail Spanberger leading Republican Winsome Earle-Sears in the governor's race by 12 and 7 percentage points, respectively. However, the surveys suggest the down-ballot races could be tighter, with Republican Jason Miyares, the incumbent attorney general, holding a slight lead over Democratic challenger Jay Jones. This trend could indicate a revival of ticket splitting, which was more common during the first four decades of competitive two-party statewide elections in Virginia.

Key Takeaways:

• Polls suggest a possible revival of ticket splitting in Virginia, a trend that was more common during the first four decades of competitive two-party statewide elections in the state.
• Democrat Abigail Spanberger leads Republican Winsome Earle-Sears in the governor's race by 12 and 7 percentage points, respectively, according to recent polls.
• The surveys suggest the down-ballot races could be tighter, with Republican Jason Miyares holding a slight lead over Democratic challenger Jay Jones.
• The main factors influencing this shift could be the demographics of the state and the changing perceptions of the Republican Party in Virginia.
• The Virginia Public Access Project has found that 2001 House of Delegates elections were highly correlated with the gubernatorial results, indicating that voters in Virginia are increasingly voting along party lines.
• However, the recent polls indicate that voters in Virginia may be breaking free from this partisan divide and are more likely to split their tickets.
• The 2022 midterm elections saw Republicans sweep the three statewide races with nearly identical percentages of the vote, indicating a strong Republican performance in the state.

Statistics:

• 2001 House of Delegates election results were highly correlated with the gubernatorial results.
• The 1977 gubernatorial election saw a third consecutive Republican victory in the office, with Lt. Gov. John Dalton winning the office that had eluded his father, Ted.
• In the 1977 election, Republican Bob McDonnell won the attorney general's race by a narrow margin, while Democrat Chuck Robb brought together a coalition that would lead Democrats out of the wilderness.
• The 1973 gubernatorial election featured a populist Democrat, Henry Howell, running as an independent and coming within 15,000 votes of defeating former Democratic Gov. Mills Godwin.
• Voter turnout topped 1 million for the first time in Virginia history in the 1973 gubernatorial election.
• The 1950s saw Ted Dalton, father of John Dalton, run twice for governor in the state.

Sources:

• "Virginia Mercury"
• "Washington Post"
• "VCU"
• "Wason Center"
• "Virginia Public Access Project"