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COVID-19

Wastewater-Based Monitoring Holds Significant Application Value for COVID-19 Trend Prediction

Strategic Insights

— 2 min read

Research published in the journal BMC Infectious Diseases has investigated the correlation between SARS-CoV-2 levels in urban wastewater and reported COVID-19 cases in Changsha, Central China. The study analyzed 2,026 wastewater samples collected between March 22, 2023, and December 31, 2024, and found a positive correlation between the concentrations of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in wastewater and the number of reported COVID-19 cases.

Key Takeaways:

  • The study found a positive rate of 82.0% for SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater, with target genes ORFlab and N exhibiting consistent trends (r = 0.95, 95% CI: 0.93-0.97) and being positively correlated with the number of reported COVID-19 cases (r = 0.79, 95% CI: 0.70-0.86; r = 0.77, 95% CI: 0.67-0.84).
  • The linear regression model showed that the coefficients of determination between the number of reported COVID-19 cases and the levels of SARS-CoV-2 RNA (ORFlab, N) in wastewater were 0.63 and 0.59, respectively.
  • The random forest model indicated that the correlation coefficients between the number of reported COVID-19 cases and the predicted cases based on the concentration of target Gene ORFlab, target gene N, and their combined concentration in wastewater were 0.89 (R = 0.77, P < 0.001) and 0.85 (R = 0.72, P < 0.001), respectively.
  • The study concluded that wastewater-based monitoring holds significant application value for trend prediction of COVID-19 cases.
  • The primary financial supporters for this research were the Health Research Project of Hunan Provincial Health Commission and the "Qinghe" Youth Cultivation Fund Project of Hunan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention.

Statistics:

  • 2,026 wastewater samples were collected over a period of 10 months (March 22, 2023, to December 31, 2024).
  • The positive rate of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater was 82.0%.
  • 70,525 cases of COVID-19 were reported during the study period.
  • The concentrations of target genes ORFlab and N in wastewater exhibited consistent trends (r = 0.95, 95% CI: 0.93-0.97) and were positively correlated with the number of reported COVID-19 cases (r = 0.79, 95% CI: 0.70-0.86; r = 0.77, 95% CI: 0.67-0.84).

Sources:

  • Association between SARS-CoV-2 levels in urban wastewater and reported COVID-19 cases in Changsha, Central China. BMC Infectious Diseases, 2025;25(1):1256.
  • BMC Infectious Diseases. Bmc, Campus, 4 Crinan St, London N1 9XW, England. www.biomedcentral.com/bmcinfectdis/
  • Hunan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hunan Academy of Preventive Medicine, Changsha, 410153, People's Republic of China. Xiu-Ying Liu, Chief Correspondent. Email: [xliu@hungzp.com](mailto:xliu@hungzp.com).
  • NewsRx LLC. Researchers at Hunan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention Report New Data on COVID-19 (Association between SARS-CoV-2 levels in urban wastewater and reported COVID-19 cases in Changsha, Central China). China Weekly News. October 21, 2025; p 184.

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