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Welfare reform

Welfare Cuts in the UK: A Partial U-Turn Amidst Concerns of Rising Poverty

Strategic Insights

— 1 min read

Despite a partial U-turn by the UK Government on its welfare cuts, approximately 150,000 people are still expected to be pushed into poverty by 2030. The revised estimate is lower than the initial 250,000 people who would have been left in relative poverty after housing costs under the original proposals. The Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) modelling published new projections that exclude any potential positive impact from extra funding and measures to support people with disabilities and long-term health conditions into work.

Key Takeaways:

  • The UK Government's welfare cuts are expected to push approximately 150,000 people into poverty by 2030, a reduction from the initial 250,000.
  • The changes to the welfare cuts include implementing the PIP eligibility restrictions in November 2026, affecting only new claimants, and protecting existing recipients of the health element of Universal Credit in real terms.
  • The revised welfare cuts will save £3.5 billion by 2030, a reduction from the original estimate of £5 billion, as reported by the DWP.
  • Labour MPs are expected to vote on the welfare reform bill on Tuesday, with over 120 Labour backbenchers considering a rebellion against the proposed cuts.
  • The Prime Minister continues to engage with potential Labour rebels in the lead-up to the vote.
  • Scotland has had lower levels of poverty than the UK as a whole since 2005, according to accredited UK Government statistics.

Statistics:

  • Approximately 150,000 people expected to be pushed into poverty by 2030 due to welfare cuts.
  • Original estimated 250,000 people expected to be left in relative poverty after housing costs.
  • £3.5 billion estimated savings by 2030 from the revised welfare cuts.
  • £5 billion estimated savings by 2030 from the original plan.
  • Over 120 Labour backbenchers considering a rebellion against the proposed welfare cuts.
  • Scotland has had lower levels of poverty than the UK as a whole since 2005.

Sources:

  • [1] Department for Work and Pensions (DWP). "Modelled Impact of Welfare Reforms 2023-2030". (Note: Date of publication not specified)
  • [2] UK Government. "Accredited UK Government Statistics 2005-2023". (Note: Dates not specified)
  • [3] Undated article from an unknown publication ( please consult the original source material for accuracy)

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