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Welfare reform

Welfare Cuts to Push 150,000 into Poverty by 2030

Strategic Insights

— 1 min read

Around 150,000 people are expected to be pushed into poverty by 2030 as a result of the Government's welfare cuts, with the figure down from 250,000 extra people estimated to have been left in relative poverty after housing costs before Sir Keir Starmer's partial U-turn. The Department for Work and Pensions' modelling excludes any impact from extra funding and measures to support people into work. Despite the changes, Labour is still braced for a revolt, with 126 Labour MPs signing an amendment to effectively kill the Government's Bill.

Key Takeaways:

  • The Government's welfare cuts are expected to push 150,000 people into poverty by 2030, a decrease from 250,000 extra people estimated to be in relative poverty after housing costs before the partial U-turn.
  • The Department for Work and Pensions' modelling excludes any impact from extra funding and measures to support people into work.
  • The changes to the personal independence payment (Pip) will only apply to new claimants from November 2026.
  • Ministers have rowed back on plans to cut the health-related element of Universal Credit after Labour MPs signed an amendment.
  • The Government's revised welfare package will cost taxpayers around £2.5 billion by 2030.
  • The Labour leadership is still braced for a revolt, despite the changes.
  • Professor Philip Cowley of Queen Mary University of London has analysed the situation, stating that the Government still faces a "non-trivial rebellion".

Statistics:

  • 150,000: The number of people expected to be pushed into poverty by 2030 as a result of the Government's welfare cuts.
  • 250,000: The number of extra people estimated to have been left in relative poverty after housing costs before the partial U-turn.
  • £2.5 billion: The revised welfare package's cost to taxpayers by 2030.
  • 2030: The year by which 150,000 people are expected to be pushed into poverty due to the Government's welfare cuts.
  • £29 billion: The additional day-to-day funding to help people get the treatment they need to return to work by 2023-24.
  • £1 billion: The additional funding to help people with disabilities and long-term health conditions into jobs by the end of the decade.

Sources:

  • "[ Department for Work and Pensions modelling report on welfare cuts ]"
  • "[ The Sun newspaper article on welfare cuts ]"

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