World Bank and UN Officials Warn of Possible Avian Influenza Pandemic

World Bank and UN officials cautioned on Sunday that the world could be on the brink of a pandemic of avian influenza, with the potentially devastating economic consequences of a severe flu pandemic among humans estimated to be a significant threat to the global economy. According to the World Bank, a pandemic could cost the global economy up to 3.1 to 4.8 percent of GDP, equivalent to 1.25 trillion to 2 trillion US dollars of world GDP. The avian influenza has spread rapidly across the globe, with over 50 countries reporting H5N1 outbreaks, causing an estimated 220 million bird deaths and significant damage to rural livelihoods.

Key Takeaways:

• A pandemic of avian influenza is possible, with the potential for the virus to mutate into a new kind of virus that can be transmitted from human to human.
• The World Bank estimates that a severe flu pandemic among humans could cost the global economy up to 3.1 to 4.8 percent of GDP, equivalent to 1.25 trillion to 2 trillion US dollars of world GDP.
• The avian influenza has spread rapidly across the globe, with over 50 countries reporting H5N1 outbreaks, causing an estimated 220 million bird deaths and significant damage to rural livelihoods.
• The World Bank is ready to support developing countries to fight avian influenza in animals, while simultaneously preparing for a possible human flu pandemic through a global funding program.
• David Nabarro, Senior United Nations System Coordinator for Avian and Human Influenza, warned that a pandemic is inevitable, but the timing is uncertain.
• Jim Adams, Head of the World Bank's Avian Flu Taskforce, stated that the world community has worked together to fight against the virus and that the World Bank is prepared to support countries in case of a pandemic.

Sources:

• XINHUA NEWS AGENCY, Sept 17, 2006
• World Bank press release (no date specified)
• United Nations (no date specified)