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Economic growth

World Bank Forecasts Global Commodity Prices to Hit Six-Year Low in 2026

Strategic Insights

— 2 min read

The World Bank's Commodity Markets Outlook expects global commodity prices to decline by 7% in 2025 and 2026, marking the fourth consecutive year of decline. The forecast is attributed to weakening global economic growth, trade tensions, and crude oil glut. According to the report, China and India together will account for a quarter of global oil consumption growth in 2025 and two-fifths in 2026, citing the International Energy Agency. The World Bank also projects Brent crude prices to average $68 per barrel in 2025, declining to $60 per barrel in 2026, a five-year low.

Key Takeaways:

  • Global commodity prices are expected to decline by 7% in 2025 and 2026, marking the fourth consecutive year of decline.
  • The decline is attributed to weakening global economic growth, trade tensions, and crude oil glut.
  • China and India together will account for a quarter of global oil consumption growth in 2025 and two-fifths in 2026, according to the International Energy Agency.
  • The World Bank forecasts Brent crude prices to average $68 per barrel in 2025 and $60 per barrel in 2026, a five-year low.
  • Precious metals have surged to record highs in 2025, driven by safe-haven demand and strong central bank buying.
  • Gold prices are expected to rise by 42% in 2025 and another 5% in 2026, nearly doubling their 2015-2019 average.
  • Silver prices are also at a record annual average, gaining 34% in 2025 and a further 8% in 2026.
  • Natural gas demand in the Asia Pacific, particularly China and India, fell in the first half of 2025 due to tepid industrial consumption.
  • Coal power generation in both countries fell amid lower electricity demand and surge in renewables.

Statistics:

  • Global commodity prices are expected to decline by 7% in 2025 and 2026 (Source: World Bank's Commodity Markets Outlook).
  • China and India together will account for a quarter of global oil consumption growth in 2025 and two-fifths in 2026 (Source: International Energy Agency).
  • Brent crude prices are expected to average $68 per barrel in 2025 and $60 per barrel in 2026 (Source: World Bank's Commodity Markets Outlook).
  • Gold prices are expected to rise by 42% in 2025 and another 5% in 2026 (Source: World Bank's Commodity Markets Outlook).
  • Silver prices are expected to gain 34% in 2025 and a further 8% in 2026 (Source: World Bank's Commodity Markets Outlook).

Sources:

  • World Bank's Commodity Markets Outlook
  • International Energy Agency (IEA)
  • World Bank's chief economist and senior vice president for development economics, Indermit Gill
  • World Bank's deputy chief economist and director of the Prospects Group, Ayhan Kose

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