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Petroleum

Yemen Teeters on Brink of Civil War: Northern Army Poised to Seize Southern Oil Reserves

Strategic Insights

— 1 min read

Weeks of escalating tensions between Yemen's northern and southern factions have culminated in a critical juncture, with the northern army, led by President Ali Abdullah Saleh, planning to use its numerical superiority to gain a decisive military advantage over its southern counterparts. The spoils of war would likely include the southern region's vast oil reserves, which hold significant promise for Yemen's economic future. The two armies, while matched in terms of firepower, are set to clash in a potentially catastrophic conflict that could have far-reaching implications for the region.

Key Takeaways:

  • The northern army, led by President Ali Abdullah Saleh, is poised to use its numerical superiority to defeat the southern forces.
  • The southern region is believed to hold most of Yemen's future oil prospects, with an estimated potential for significant oil production.
  • The northern army currently produces 170,000 barrels per day (b/d) of crude oil, while the south produces 145,000 b/d.
  • Major international oil companies, including Hunt Oil Co., Exxon Corp., and Occidental Petroleum Corp., are involved in oil production and exploration in both the north and south.
  • The southern oil field in Shabwa Block 4, currently producing about 10,000 b/d, and the East Shabwa block, estimated to produce 40,000 b/d, are among the key targets.
  • The conflict has already spread to the south, with fierce tank battles reported at the Amran military base north of Sanaa.
  • An assassination attempt on Deputy Prime Minister Hassan Makki in Sanaa has heightened tensions, with southern forces expecting a northern attack on the Shabwa oil area.

Statistics:

  • The northern army has 11 million people, while the southern region has 2.5 million inhabitants.
  • The cost of oil production in Yemen is approximately $10 billion per year.
  • The southern region's oil reserves are estimated to hold the majority of Yemen's future oil prospects.
  • The northern army produces 170,000 b/d of crude oil, while the southern region produces 145,000 b/d.
  • The Shabwa Block 4 oil field produces approximately 10,000 b/d, while the East Shabwa block is estimated to produce 40,000 b/d.

Sources:

  • AFP ("Yemen on Brink of War between North and South", 1993-08-20)
  • Reuters ("Yemen Forces Clash in South, Oil Projects at Risk", 1993-08-21)
  • LexisNexis ("Yemen Teeters on Brink of Civil War", 1993)

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