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Youth

Youth Smoking Rates Decline in UK, but Study Finds Connection to Vaping

Strategic Insights

— 1 min read

An observational study published in Tobacco Control has found that youth smoking rates in the UK have decreased significantly over the past four decades, from 33% in 1974 to 12% in 2018. However, the study's analysis of vaping's impact on smoking rates among teens has sparked debate among experts. Dr. John Robins, Research Associate at the Nicotine Research Group, King's College London, has criticized the study's conclusions, arguing that the authors' findings do not justify the claim that vaping leads to smoking.

Key Takeaways:

  • The study analyzed data from three large longitudinal surveys, comparing the prevalence of cigarette smoking among 16-17 year olds in 1974, 1986, and 2018.
  • The study found that youth smoking rates have declined from 33% to 12% over the past four decades.
  • However, the study's analysis of vaping's impact on smoking rates among teens has sparked debate, with some experts arguing that the findings do not justify the claim that vaping leads to smoking.
  • Prof. Lion Shahab, Professor of Health Psychology at University College London, cautioned against making causal interpretations of the study's findings, citing "common liability" among youth who engage in both vaping and smoking.
  • Prof. Peter Hajek, Professor of Clinical Psychology at Queen Mary University of London, noted that the study's findings may reflect shared vulnerabilities among youth who engage in both behaviors, rather than a causal relationship between vaping and smoking.
  • Dr. John Robins argued that the study's conclusions are "highly misleading" and that the authors' language implies a causal relationship between vaping and smoking, despite cautioning against it.

Statistics:

  • 33% of 16-17 year olds in 1974 smoked cigarettes.
  • 12% of 16-17 year olds in 2018 smoked cigarettes.
  • 33% of 16-17 year olds in the 2001 cohort who currently vaped smoked cigarettes, compared to 1.5% of those who never vaped.
  • 7% of 15-year-olds in England smoked in 2018, down from 25% in 1982.
  • 3% of 15-year-olds in England smoked in 2022, a further decline from 7% in 2018.

Sources:

  • Mongilio et al. "Risk of adolescent cigarette use in three UK birth cohorts before and after e-cigarettes", Tobacco Control (2024) DOI: 10.1136/tc-2024-059212.
  • Dr. John Robins, Research Associate, Nicotine Research Group, King's College London.
  • Prof. Lion Shahab, Professor of Health Psychology, University College London.
  • Prof. Peter Hajek, Professor of Clinical Psychology, Queen Mary University of London.

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