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Mayors

Zohran Mamdani Leads in New York City Mayoral Race, But Support Could Falter in a Smaller Field

Strategic Insights

— 1 min read

A new survey by The New York Times and Siena University has found that Zohran Mamdani, the Democratic nominee in the New York City mayoral race, has a commanding lead of 46% among likely voters. Mamdani's support spans racial and ethnic groups, but is particularly strong among young and highly educated voters. The poll found that Mamdani's lead could diminish significantly if the field shrinks to a two-man race, with his support dropping to 48% in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup against former Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo.

Key Takeaways:

  • Zohran Mamdani leads the New York City mayoral race with 46% of likely voters, followed by Andrew M. Cuomo with 24%, Curtis Sliwa with 15%, and Eric Adams with 9%.
  • Mamdani's support is strongest among young and highly educated voters, but he also leads among all racial groups, including Hispanic voters.
  • In a hypothetical head-to-head matchup, Mamdani's lead against Cuomo drops to 48-44, but increases to 52-40 if Adams drops out but Sliwa stays in the race.
  • Voters trust Mamdani more than Cuomo to handle affordability and housing costs, with 60% saying Mamdani is best positioned to address these issues.
  • Over 70% of voters support Mamdani's proposal to freeze increases on rent-stabilized units, including majorities of Cuomo and Adams supporters.
  • Mamdani's affiliation with the Democratic Socialists of America is viewed positively by 37% of likely voters, but negatively by 32%.
  • Cuomo has more room to increase his support before Election Day, with 57% of likely voters saying he would be an effective mayor.

Statistics:

  • 46% of likely voters planned to choose Zohran Mamdani in a four-way race.
  • 24% planned to support Andrew M. Cuomo.
  • 15% planned to vote for Curtis Sliwa.
  • 9% planned to support Eric Adams.
  • 60% said Mamdani was inspirational, had good character, and cared about people.
  • 69% supported Mamdani's proposal to freeze increases on rent-stabilized units.
  • 57% believed Cuomo would be an effective mayor.

Sources:

  • The New York Times
  • Siena University
  • "The New York Times/Siena College poll" conducted among 1,284 New York City likely voters from Sept. 2 to Sept. 6, 2025.

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