Projected Global Clinical, Humanistic, and Economic Impact of Metabolic Dysfunction-Associated Steatohepatitis (MASH)

The clinical burden of metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH) is well-documented, but its economic burden is less well-described. A new study projects the global clinical, humanistic, and economic impact of MASH over the next two decades, highlighting the urgent need for national and global strategies to reduce its negative impact. The research uses a 1-year cycle Markov model to project MASH progression from 2021 to 2040, incorporating prevalent cases and incident cases, and adjusting for country-specific inflation rates.

Key Takeaways:

• The prevalence of MASH is projected to increase in all countries studied, with the United States and Saudi Arabia experiencing the largest increases (6.71%-7.41% and 7.39%-7.50%, respectively).
• Advanced MASH (F3- compensated cirrhosis, decompensated cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma, and liver transplantations) is expected to increase by 20% in all countries, with direct annual medical costs projected to more than double.
• Direct annual medical costs are projected to increase from $34.97 to $78.59 billion in the United States, $0.83 to $1.82 billion in Germany, $1.48 to $3.50 billion in Spain, $1.28 to $2.90 billion in France, $1.34 to $3.00 billion in Italy, $2.18 to $5.29 billion in the United Kingdom, $1.20 to $2.33 billion in Japan, $3.41 to $9.81 billion in Brazil, and $1.72 to $3.96 billion in Saudi Arabia.
• Work productivity losses are projected to more than double in most countries, and health-related quality of life will decline modestly as the burden of advanced disease increases.
• The study concludes that without intervention, the clinical, economic, and quality-of-life burden of MASH is projected to increase across most regions of the world.

Statistics:

• Projected prevalence of MASH in the United States (2021-2040): 6.71%-7.41%
• Projected direct annual medical costs in the United States (2021-2040): $34.97 to $78.59 billion
• Projected growth in direct annual medical costs in the United States (2021-2040): 122%
• Projected increase in advanced MASH (F3- compensated cirrhosis, decompensated cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma, and liver transplantations) in all countries: 20%

Sources:

• Younossi, Z. M., et al. (2025). Projected Global Clinical, Humanistic, and Economic Impact of Metabolic Dysfunction-Associated Steatohepatitis (MASH): The Cost of Inaction Based on Data From Nine Countries. Clinical Gastroenterology and Hepatology, 2025.
• NewsRx. Recent Findings from Zobair M. Younossi and Co-Authors Provide New Insights into Cirrhosis [Projected Global Clinical, Humanistic, and Economic Impact of Metabolic Dysfunction-Associated Steatohepatitis (MASH): The Cost of Inaction Based on Data ...]. Obesity & Diabetes Week. October 20, 2025; p 97.